Over/under 2.5 goals asks one question: will the match have three goals or more, or two or fewer? This page explains the market and shows how the same model behind the daily board turns expected goals into a total goals probability.
The market counts the goals of both teams together. Over 2.5 means three goals or more. Under 2.5 means two goals or fewer. Who wins does not matter.
A match cannot have half a goal, so there is nothing in between. A 2-1 result is over. A 1-1 draw is under. A 3-0 win is over. A 2-0 win is under.
The same way as any other odds: divide 1 by the decimal odds. Take a match priced at 1.90 for over 2.5 and 1.90 for under 2.5.
One of the two must happen, so the true chances add up to 100%. The extra 5.26% is the bookmaker margin. Remove it by dividing each figure by the total: 52.63 ÷ 105.26 = 50.00%. Without the margin, this market says over and under are equally likely.
Zort converts the match result and goals probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed by Shin's method, into an expected goals figure for each team. A Poisson model then turns expected goals into a chance for each number of goals.
Say the model expects 1.5 goals from the home team and 1.1 from the away team. The expected total is 1.5 + 1.1 = 2.6 goals. A plain Poisson model with an average of 2.6 gives:
Under 2.5 is the sum of those three: 7.43 + 19.31 + 25.10 = 51.84%. Over 2.5 is everything else: 100 − 51.84 = 48.16%.
Notice what happened. The match is expected to produce 2.6 goals, more than 2.5, and yet under is slightly more likely than over. An average is pulled up by the few matches with five or six goals. The most common totals are still one, two and three.
The same three figures give the other goal lines. Over 1.5 is 100 − 7.43 − 19.31 = 73.26%. The chance of exactly three goals is 21.76%, so over 3.5 is 100 − 51.84 − 21.76 = 26.40%.
This is the plain Poisson version. Zort uses the Dixon-Coles version, which adds a low-score correction and moves a little probability between the lowest scorelines, such as 0-0 and 1-1. The full method is on the mathematical football prediction page.
Each row of the daily board shows a Score and a Goals column. Score is the most likely scoreline consistent with the result the model predicts. Goals says whether that one scoreline is over or under 2.5. It is the total of a single scoreline, not a separate over/under percentage.
That is why the column often reads Under 2.5. In the example above the home team is the more likely winner, and its most likely winning scoreline is 1-0. The chance of exactly one home goal is 33.47% and the chance of no away goal is 33.29%, so 1-0 comes to 33.47% × 33.29% = 11.14%. That scoreline has one goal, so the column would read Under 2.5, even though over 2.5 is a 48.16% chance in the same match.
No. Both teams to score only asks whether each side scored. A 1-1 draw is BTTS Yes and under 2.5. A 3-0 win is BTTS No and over 2.5. For the exact scoreline, see correct score. For who wins, see match result (1X2).
A 48% chance of over 2.5 means that, across many matches like this one, a little under half would have three goals or more. It says nothing certain about this match. Zort publishes no win rate, return or hit rate for its predictions and makes no claim that they win.
Over 2.5 goals means the two teams score three goals or more between them. A 2-1 or 3-0 result is over 2.5. Who wins does not matter.
Under 2.5 goals means the two teams score two goals or fewer between them. A 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0 result is under 2.5.
A match cannot have half a goal, so a line of 2.5 always has an answer. Two goals or fewer is under. Three goals or more is over. There is nothing in between.
A Poisson model takes the expected goals for the match and gives a chance for each total. With 2.6 expected goals, a plain Poisson model gives 7.43% for no goals, 19.31% for one and 25.10% for two. Those add up to 51.84% for under 2.5, which leaves 48.16% for over 2.5.
No. Both teams to score only asks whether each side scored. A 1-1 draw is both teams to score and under 2.5. A 3-0 win is over 2.5 without both teams scoring.
The Goals column of the daily board at zort-app.com/predictions/ shows whether the model's scoreline for each match is over or under 2.5 goals. The board is free and is published every day at 10:00 UTC.
Zort is a bet tracker, not a betting company. It is an app for tracking the bets you have already placed, so you can see your real results in one place: profit and loss, return and win rate. Zort sells no picks and takes no bets. Read more about the bet tracker app.
Download Zort FreeMore: Free Football Predictions · Mathematical Football Prediction · Match Result (1X2) · Correct Score Predictions · Both Teams To Score Tips · Today's board