What a correct score bet is, why it's one of the hardest markets in football, and how Zort's model turns goal expectancies into a probability for every scoreline.
A correct score prediction picks the exact final scoreline of a football match — for example 2-1 — rather than simply which side wins. It only settles as a win if both teams' goal counts match the prediction exactly, so a correct call on the winner with the wrong scoreline still loses.
Correct score is hard because a single match has dozens of realistically possible outcomes, and across the market generally even the single most likely scoreline typically lands only nine to thirteen times in a hundred matches. That is a property of the bet type itself — a consequence of how many scorelines are plausible in any one game — not a measure of how well any particular prediction service performs.
Zort converts de-vigged match-result and goals odds into an expected-goals figure for each side, then runs those expected goals through a Poisson/Dixon-Coles model with a low-score correction — a standard adjustment for the extra real-world correlation between low scorelines such as 0-0 and 1-1 that a plain Poisson model on its own underestimates — to produce a probability for every plausible scoreline.
No. The correct score prices shown on Zort are model estimates derived from goal expectancies, not prices quoted by any bookmaker, so treat them as a probability read rather than a price you can necessarily find available at a book.
Correct score demands the exact final scoreline, while both teams to score only asks a binary Yes/No question about whether each side found the net — which is why BTTS carries shorter odds and a materially higher hit rate than correct score.
Today's correct score board is part of the full fixture table at /betslips/, published daily at 10:00 UTC alongside match-result and both-teams-to-score probabilities for every match priced that day. For the wider method and the BTTS market, see Free Football Predictions.
A bet on the exact final scoreline of a match, such as 2-1, rather than just the match result.
Even the single most likely scoreline in the market generally lands only roughly nine to thirteen times in a hundred matches — a property of the bet type, not a claim about our own record.
Yes, as part of the daily fixture table at /betslips/, with no signup required.
No — the prices shown are model estimates derived from goal expectancies, not bookmaker prices.
Daily at 10:00 UTC, alongside match result and both teams to score probabilities.
More: Free Football Predictions · Today's board
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