What does betting cost? Expected loss calculator

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Bets placed with a bookmaker carry the bookmaker's margin, so on average each unit you stake costs you a fixed share of it. At a 5% margin that is about 4.76 for every 100 staked on a single bet; enter your own stakes below to see the weekly, monthly and yearly figure and the arithmetic behind it.

Example values only: 4 to 6 for a single, higher for some markets. To find the margin of a real market, use the margin calculator.

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You stake per week
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You stake per year
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Expected cost per week
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Per month
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Per year
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Per 100 staked

This is the long-run average cost of the margin, not a forecast for you. Some people lose much more, and one person's year can be very different from the average. Count every stake you place, including winnings you bet again, because the cost applies each time money is staked.

How the figure is worked out

Margin and cost are different numbers. A 5% margin is a 4.76% cost on the money staked, because the margin is measured against the total of the implied probabilities and the cost against the stake.

Worked examples

Each row was calculated with the same formulas and checked by hand. Amounts are in whatever currency you stake in.

StakeBets per weekSelectionsMargin eachCost per 100 stakedPer monthPer year
10515%4.7610.32123.81
10535%13.6229.50354.02
20155%21.6518.76225.13
50214%3.8516.67200.00
51016%5.6612.26147.17
102105%38.6133.46401.53

By hand for the first row: 10 × 5 × 52 = 2,600 staked in a year. 2,600 / 1.05 = 2,476.19 comes back on average, so the cost is 2,600 minus 2,476.19 = 123.81. For the third row, five selections at 5% give 1.05 to the power 5 = 1.2763, a payout of 78.35 per 100 and a cost of 21.65 per 100 staked, so a single 20 bet costs 4.33 on average.

What this does not show

It does not show what you will lose, what you have lost, or how likely a good or bad run is. For your own results you need a record of what you staked and what came back. How to see what betting really costs you explains what to record and how to read it, and bookmaker margin explained shows where the margin comes from.

Questions

Is this what I will lose?

No. It is the long-run average cost of the margin on the stakes you enter, not a prediction for you. Real results swing around the average, and some people lose much more than it shows, especially when stakes rise after losses.

What does the calculator assume?

That the prices you take carry the margin you enter on every selection, that the margin is spread proportionally across outcomes, and that your selections are no better or worse than the market's own prices. Real margins are not spread perfectly evenly, so treat the result as an estimate.

Why does an accumulator cost more for each unit staked?

Each selection carries its own margin and the margins multiply. Five selections at a 5% margin each have a combined factor of 1.05 to the power of 5, which is 1.2763, so the expected payout is 78.35 for every 100 staked and the cost is 21.65.

Where do the margin figures come from?

The preset suggestions are examples, not measurements. To see the margin on a real market, enter all of its odds into the margin calculator on this site, then type that figure here.

Keep a record of the bets you have already placed

Zort is a bet tracker for iPhone and Android. You photograph or screenshot a slip for a bet you have already placed, check what Zort read, and save it. Zort then shows your profit and loss, ROI and win rate. It is not a betting app: it takes no bets, gives no tips and links to no bookmakers. It is free to download, and this page lists exactly what it does and does not do. For adults aged 18 and over.

Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

More tools: Margin calculator · All tools · The Zort bet tracker

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